Explaining support for environmental public policies through the value-belief-norm theory: A systematic review with meta-analysis

This study provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory to determine its effectiveness in explaining why the public supports or opposes environmental policies. The VBN theory posits a causal chain where an individual's basic values influence their ecological worldview, which shapes their awareness of environmental consequences, their sense of responsibility, and ultimately, their personal norms to take action. The authors analyzed 23 cross-sectional studies to evaluate the model's predictive power and to identify which constructs most strongly correlate with support for specific environmental policies.

The review reveals significant variability in how the VBN theory is applied, with most studies testing only partial models rather than the complete causal chain. While the theory-supported constructs—such as Awareness of Consequences, Ascription of Responsibility, and Pro-environmental Personal Norms—showed significant positive correlations with policy support, they were often outperformed by factors outside the VBN framework. Specifically, perceived fairness and perceived effectiveness of policies emerged as the strongest predictors of support. The explanatory power of the VBN model (R-squared) varied widely, ranging from 2% to 72% across the surveyed literature, suggesting that the model is sensitive to contextual, cultural, and methodological differences.

Understanding public support is critical for the success of climate policies, as opposition can halt implementation entirely. This study highlights that while the VBN theory offers a useful framework for understanding moral predispositions, it is insufficient as a standalone model for predicting policy support. To better inform policy design, researchers and policymakers must look beyond general values and incorporate policy-specific beliefs, such as whether the public views the policy as fair and effective. The findings also suggest that theoretical models of support may need to be adapted for different cultural contexts, as some traditional VBN variables showed weaker predictive power in specific hierarchical societies.